Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 11.560547 13.246245 15.064237 17.167198 19.529199 22.096570 25.094710
2025-05-18 8.974488 11.230341 13.854526 17.118725 21.055072 25.632879 31.342755
2025-05-25 7.761951 10.276902 13.346559 17.342661 22.377991 28.480271 36.399751
2025-06-01 6.722188 9.369068 12.743231 17.318352 23.312059 30.843359 40.960876
2025-06-08 5.877080 8.571850 12.140930 17.155341 23.949288 32.754998 44.937400
2025-06-15 5.294745 8.047629 11.821763 17.295778 24.937636 35.117227 49.568176
2025-06-22 4.924692 7.769182 11.791817 17.794397 26.399281 38.141414 55.191232
2025-06-29 4.408554 7.218161 11.315807 17.604126 26.855953 39.780997 58.963778
2025-07-06 3.792717 6.450001 10.448824 16.761693 26.295036 39.929200 60.608936
2025-07-13 3.570389 6.269300 10.438993 17.178953 27.579838 42.745165 66.161501
2025-07-20 3.350241 6.068136 10.375210 17.497053 28.716845 45.379941 71.547704
2025-07-27 3.068611 5.736512 10.074760 17.414355 29.219736 47.077845 75.598338
2025-08-03 2.774642 5.361484 9.682513 17.168703 29.470510 48.434190 79.246262
2025-08-10 2.560246 5.105268 9.465972 17.191725 30.144368 50.465813 84.016064
2025-08-17 2.398996 4.927511 9.364544 17.391272 31.101489 52.964381 89.595162
2025-08-24 2.218418 4.695651 9.148834 17.375686 31.692265 54.895624 94.345714
2025-08-31 2.033147 4.435858 8.860953 17.209156 32.008820 56.383726 98.428807
2025-09-07 1.908964 4.282969 8.753599 17.351053 32.852163 58.757269 104.029500
2025-09-14 1.842045 4.238503 8.842749 17.850715 34.338682 62.252707 111.604453
2025-09-21 1.694041 4.012237 8.569066 17.660037 34.586083 63.663720 115.746694
2025-09-28 1.484548 3.634045 7.970514 16.815159 33.601964 62.917350 116.196785
2025-10-05 1.431852 3.591124 8.031009 17.233624 34.945101 66.244443 123.730488
2025-10-12 1.371931 3.526185 8.041425 17.552623 36.114848 69.307656 130.911266